Business challenge
Central-case forecasts can hide downside exposure and make it hard to compare dispatch or storage assumptions.
In Practice / Forecasting and risk
Forecasting and downside-risk analysis
Allowing forecast assumptions, scenario ranges and downside cases to be compared before decisions are made.
Scenario analysis - downside risk
Anonymised analytical output
This anonymised example illustrates the analytical approach, validation process and decision-support outputs while protecting confidential project information.
Why the existing process was difficult
Renewable energy and storage planning settings where generation, prices, curtailment and dispatch choices are uncertain.
Data and constraints
Representative renewable generation, price scenarios, forecast horizons, storage assumptions and risk-preference inputs. Prototype only. Not live grid-control software, not trading software and not production dispatch automation.
What SSS Techs built
Use quantile-style forecasting, rolling calibration checks, scenario comparison, CVaR-style diagnostics and storage optionality analysis.
Validation and quality controls
Compare forecast intervals, downside cases and scenario outputs against baselines and sensitivity tests before any operational use.
Result or decision enabled
Makes downside risk, dispatch assumptions and storage trade-offs easier to inspect before larger engineering decisions.
Relevant consulting route
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